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Thread: What's the Chance of That?

  1. #1

    Default What's the Chance of That?

    Having recently bought a Hannover CL.IIIa, tonight’s scenario was a chance to fly it. Research on the Hannover described it as a fighter. So the scenario was set as a dogfight between the Hannover with a Fokker D.VII and a Bristol F2B with a Sopwith Camel. (Further research described the Hannover as ‘reconnaissance’.)
    As we prepared to play, the question came up, “What will we do with the boom card? Half damage, or full?” I replied, “Full damage, unless I draw one in my first encounter with another plane!”
    So the game began.

    REPORT
    Having started about a ruler and a half apart, it was interesting to watch the Bristol and Camel do mirror moves until they settled next to each other.
    Click image for larger version. 

Name:	<acronym title=AAR 200721 01 T (1024x576).jpg  Views: 49  Size: 93.3 KB  ID: 290508" class="thumbnail" style="float:CONFIG" />Photo 01

    Then they split up with the Camel heading towards the Fokker, and the Bristol towards the Hannover.
    Click image for larger version. 

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    The Bristol and Hannover pilots fire at each other. The Hannover drew damage of two circles, one with a jagged edge. (In other words a zero and a boom.) What were we doing with the boom card, again? Half points. Oh good, the Hannover gets to keep flying. (And this scenario was created for the Hannover!)
    Click image for larger version. 

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    The rear gunners get into the action as the two seaters pass each other. The Hannover drew damage of two circles, one with a jagged edge!!!!! Now, what is the chance of that? I was good at arithmetic where the answers were predictable, but I didn’t like probability, so can someone help? What is the chance of that? A zero and a boom followed by a zero and a boom.
    Click image for larger version. 

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    We play to enjoy the game and each other’s company, not to have someone sitting watching all night, so it was decided to introduce another plane to replace the Hannover. A UFAG was it.
    Meanwhile, the Camel and Fokker kept at each other. Having already been wounded, the Fokker pilot couldn’t survive another hit to the body and went down.
    Click image for larger version. 

Name:	<acronym title=AAR 200721 05b (1024x576).jpg  Views: 50  Size: 85.5 KB  ID: 290512" class="thumbnail" style="float:CONFIG" />Photo 05b

    An Albatros D.Va joined the fray in place of the Fokker.
    Across the other side of the landscape, the UFAG and Bristol engage one another – front and rear.
    Click image for larger version. 

Name:	<acronym title=AAR 200721 07 (1024x576).jpg  Views: 49  Size: 91.4 KB  ID: 290513" class="thumbnail" style="float:CONFIG" /> Click image for larger version. 

Name:	<acronym title=AAR 200721 08 (1024x576).jpg  Views: 49  Size: 88.3 KB  ID: 290514" class="thumbnail" style="float:CONFIG" />Photos 07 & 08

    As has played out for most of this game, the single seaters are duelling with each other.
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    But now the two-seater UFAG takes a long range shot at a single seater.
    Click image for larger version. 

Name:	<acronym title=AAR 200721 10 (1024x576).jpg  Views: 49  Size: 72.2 KB  ID: 290516" class="thumbnail" style="float:CONFIG" />Photo 10

    Having been on fire, and thus taking damage, the Bristol finds itself in the cross hairs. The shots from the Albatros and the UFAG are enough to bring it down. (The Bristol was replaced by a RE8.)
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    The Camel is in danger now, but only the UFAG is close enough to hit it.
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    And hit it. The Camel pilot gets a shot away at the Albatros, despite being injured by the UFAG’s shot.
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    Both Entente planes suffer as the German pilots are relentless.
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    The air is zinging as shots go everywhere! And the Camel can take no more.
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    We decided to end the game when the Camel went down as it was the last of the original planes. Here is the final outcome.
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Name:	<acronym title=AAR 200721 16 (1024x576).jpg  Views: 49  Size: 88.0 KB  ID: 290522" class="thumbnail" style="float:CONFIG" />Photo 16

  2. #2

    Default

    Not sure of your odds queston, but I was on fire twice and had jam! I think you were really unlucky.

  3. #3

    Default

    Nice dogfights!
    Voilŕ le soleil d'Austerlitz!

  4. #4

    Default

    Blimey Doug - did you break a mirror ?! I think you chaps need to seed the Boom cards into the bottom half/two thirds of the deck just so you can get a game started !
    What a shame you didn't get the chance to really exercise the Hannover, they do put up a decent fight.
    Here's my first solo effort using one: https://www.wingsofwar.org/forums/sh...ver-It-is-now-!

    "He is wise who watches"

  5. #5

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Windy Jack View Post
    The rear gunners get into the action as the two seaters pass each other. The Hannover drew damage of two circles, one with a jagged edge!!!!! Now, what is the chance of that? I was good at arithmetic where the answers were predictable, but I didn’t like probability, so can someone help? What is the chance of that? A zero and a boom followed by a zero and a boom.
    My calculation is 1:12040 (in case of untouched decks). Seems it right?

  6. #6

    Smile

    BOOOM, Booom, Tra Lar, BOOOM! De ay!

    Ye gods never seen so many Booms in such a short time. Did you return them & reshuffle?

  7. #7

    Default

    We have a new Boom-Boom Club member here, Sven finally has some company!
    Historical Consultant/Researcher, Wings and Sails lines - Unless stated otherwise, all comments are personal opinion only and NOT official Ares policy.
    Wings Checklists: WWI (down Navarre Nieuport, Ares Drachens) | WWII (complete)

  8. #8

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by flash View Post
    Blimey Doug - did you break a mirror ?! I think you chaps need to seed the Boom cards into the bottom half/two thirds of the deck just so you can get a game started !
    No! All the mirrors were safe. But I did shuffle the damage decks as was quickly pointed out to me on the night.

  9. #9

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by gully_raker View Post
    Ye gods never seen so many Booms in such a short time. Did you return them & reshuffle?
    No, we didn't return the cards to the deck.
    Unfortunately, the Bristol has an A gun at the front and a B gun at the rear. Thus the booms came from different decks.

  10. #10

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Dan-Sam View Post
    My calculation is 1:12040 (in case of untouched decks). Seems it right?
    Thanks for your calculation, Dan. I thought it might be a bigger number than 12040, but then as I said, I didn't get on well with probability at school.

  11. #11

    Default

    ive got a whole file of weird happenstances such as this. killed each other on the 1st shot. both burst into flame, died with 3, yes 3 pilot hits etc. and then theres the whole origins 2018 thing.

  12. #12

    Default

    Phillip, your ORIGINS 2018 thing was beyond epic! One for the ages.

  13. #13

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Windy Jack View Post
    Thanks for your calculation, Dan. I thought it might be a bigger number than 12040, but then as I said, I didn't get on well with probability at school.
    In fact, it is a big number. Imagine you would bet a 10$ to winning on Eddie the Eagle and you would get 120 400$ - you can rebuild whole RAF in 1:200 for such money

  14. #14

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by redcoon2 View Post
    Phillip, your ORIGINS 2018 thing was beyond epic! One for the ages.

    yep. maybe someone could make a medal with the explosion to commemorate it lol.



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