It’s bushfire season in Australia

[Zoe Brain]

The Bairnsdale incident controllers are asked how long they think the fires can continue to burn for?

A long time, is the answer.

"Based on the best estimate, we would say at least another eight weeks ... we are only at the beginning of summer. In a normal year, we would start to see the fire season kickoff in a big way around early January and we’re already up towards a million hectares of burnt country. We would expect – we are in for the long haul. This is a marathon event and we expect to be busy managing these fires for at least the next eight weeks."

And in other news...

The ACT government has ordered 10,000 P2 Respirators for distribution to the homeless and disadvantaged and is working with pharnacy chains to import tens of thousands more, and publicise where they are available. They've even been contacted by manufacturers, as well as residents.

No idea if my own actions regarding amateur distribution and me contacting sales managers of manufacturers letting them know the situation had any effect. Probably it just steam engines come steam engine time, and it is just a coincidence. Kudos to them anyway, it's just a really good idea.

[Stumptonian]

I am sure you deserve some credit for showing them how to do their job, Zoe.
Good on ya.

[Flying Officer Kyte]

What is your own situation Wayne? Are you in any danger?
Rob.

[Biggles downunder]

What is your own situation Wayne? Are you in any danger?
Rob.

Not now, the closest fire to me was Cudlee Creek - 10km away but, although we were blanketed by smoke initially, it wasn’t anything like Zoe’s situation and has now cleared.

South Australia’s biggest fire is now on Kangaroo Island - huge property losses and 2 deaths, one a famous bush pilot, Richard Lang (I tried to use the name he is known as but the forum replaced it with ****)

I’m watching the late night news and it’s just unimaginably mind boggling. I read this on one of my news feeds (sobering stats):

‘To give some scale to what has happened here so far, international media outlets have been reporting the 2018 California fires burnt 2 million acres; the 2019 Amazon fires 2.2 million; and the 2019 Siberian fires 6.7 million.

So far Australia's 2019/20 fires have burnt 12 million acres.’

[Hedeby]

It looks positively biblical from over here, my prayers go out to everyone, alas way to late the estimate 500 MILLION animals that have also perished thus far.
Stay safe Zoe

[Stumptonian]

Added that link to my Facebook page.
Every $ helps.

[Zoe Brain]

It looks positively biblical from over here, my prayers go out to everyone, alas way to late the estimate 500 MILLION animals that have also perished thus far.
Stay safe Zoe

I confess I bawled my eyes out when I saw this. Maybe things are starting to get to me.



Still, this is a marathon, not a sprint, and things will likely be a lot more tricky in late February, which is the peak of the bushfire season.
Next year will likely be the same, or worse too, and most of the years after that. So better pull my socks up.

The Cancon venue is fully air conditioned, thank goodness. Going to and from is another matter.

[milcoll73]

I confess I bawled my eyes out when I saw this. Maybe things are starting to get to me.



Still, this is a marathon, not a sprint, and things will likely be a lot more tricky in late February, which is the peak of the bushfire season.
Next year will likely be the same, or worse too, and most of the years after that. So better pull my socks up.

The Cancon venue is fully air conditioned, thank goodness. Going to and from is another matter.

nothing wrong with shedding some sorrow. i think the cartoon is rather touching. i like irwin.

[Zoe Brain]

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-...smoke/11841546

On New Year's Day, Canberra experienced its worst air pollution on record, a ranking of beating out some of the worst-ranked cities for air quality in the world.

The air quality index exceeded 3,500 in north Canberra this afternoon. A reading of 200 or more is considered hazardous.

(Momentary peak was 7700... currently 3800 hourly average...)

By Sunday afternoon, all Qantas flights to and from Canberra Airport had been cancelled.

The Australian National University and the University of Canberra both closed their campuses, citing hazardous air concerns.

The ACT remains in a state of alert due to heightened bushfire risk, however, no fires are currently burning in the territory.



Apparently not 1,000 but 100,000 P2 Respirators are coming in tomorrow to be given to vulnerable groups.

Hmm.. as the holder of a seniors' card, I might be offered one.

[Zoe Brain]

X marks the spot. North Canberra.

You can see why we're being blanketed by smoke, regardless of wind direction.

Also on this map Maruya, where Gully_raker was evacuated from (via Bega, Cooma, Canberra, thence Goulburn and Bowral to Sydney)

[flash]

That was quite a hike for Baz and others to evacuate the area.

[Zoe Brain]

That was quite a hike for Baz and others to evacuate the area.

The scenic route, yes. Open for a limited time.

A bigger picture.

[Naharaht]

Thank you f0r the link to the map, Zoe.

Great photograph, Wayne!

[zenlizard]

Thank you for your efforts to keep us updated, Zoe. It's just...wow.

[OldGuy59]

When the interior of BC burned last year, we were getting smoke in the Comox Valley from off-shore breezes.

It looks like New Zealand is getting smoked pretty bad from the image above.

Thoughs and positive vibes to all down under.

[rhodie80]

Just saw this NASA map of Australia.

https://imgur.com/gallery/9oiePhO?fb...hlntseJM_4BkWc

[zenlizard]

There seems to be some temporary relief. But only temporary:
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-australia-51003504

[Zoe Brain]

Challenging flying conditions.

C-27J Spartan and C-130J Hercules of the RAAF attempting to evacuate civilians.

[Biggles downunder]

I don’t know how many of you saw this map overlay on Twitter:

[matt56]

That overlay really puts things in perspective for Americans, Wayne What you all are going through is simply mind-boggling - please stay as safe as you can (I know you will do your best).

All the best,
Matt

[flash]

Where there's smoke...

A photo captured by NASA's Terra satellite on Jan. 2, 2020, and made available by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), shows thick smoke blanketing southeastern Australia along the border of Victoria and New South Wales.

[Zoe Brain]

[Teaticket]

This is heartbreaking. I can't imagine the devastation.

[clipper1801]

Indeed, very devastating. Having grown up in a fire bombing family it is amazing how resilient the wild is, in time it can heal. A different kind of war . . .

[Baxter]

Much needed 5mm of rain has just downgraded fires in South Australia after most of Kangaroo Island burnt. Hopefully the rain moves East now.

[Zoe Brain]

Much needed 5mm of rain has just downgraded fires in South Australia

With luck, Victoria should get some too.

Meanwhile, for European readers...

[Flying Officer Kyte]

I saw this map of yours when you posted it in happier times Zoe. It was a revelation then, but now it has a new poignancy.
So upsetting to see the devastation. As they say the bush will recover, but it will take a generation for the infrastructure to be renovated, and as for peoples livelihoods and the animal population it will be questionable if some of them ever recover. I just hope the aid keeps flowing in. People have short memories once the emergency part is passed and the new smoves on to a new topic.
Rob.

[Zoe Brain]

There3 no guarantee that we won't have a repeat next year. And the one after that. And the one after that.
Infrastructure wil have to be rebuilt, but probably not in the same form, or even in the same place.

Meanwhile, megafires are no respecter of state boundaries, and a group have become a gigafire.





We just had 23 drops of rain hit our roof. I counted them. Our ration of the rain from South Australia. Every little bit helps.

[flash]

At this rate by next year there'll be bugger all left to burn... meanwhile I heard from Baz today:

Seems I have been lucky so far. Fire about 5 KS South of my place & hoping the winds forecast for today don't send it my way. I am still in Sydney with my grand daughter & husband but hope to return home Sunday.
I made sure I evacuated my WoG stuff into my daughter's place in Moruya township & even brought the early was models and Nexus mats to Sydney with me. One must make priorities! LoL!
Looking forward to getting back on the Forum but internet access in Moruya might be a problem due to damage to NBN towers.
We will just have to see.
Cheers for now, Baz.

Told him I'd pass it on & sent best wishes.

[Flying Officer Kyte]

Thanks for that bit of news Dave.
What a relief! His planes are safe, and now all we have to worry about is his farmstead!

Rob.

[Flying Helmut]

Great to hear he's still OK!

Thanks for the update, Dave.

[Teaticket]

Reassuring to hear he is ok and doing well. Hoping his home survives. At least he has his Wings kit safe with him!

[Baxter]

Am I right in assuming Barry was the only member in harms way?

I was just thinking that if there are members who have lost their WoG kit in the fires then I would be more than happy to contribute some of mine to help with the replacement.

[Zoe Brain]

The really dangerous weather has passed, no more forecast for the next 2 weeks.

Real time Hotspots satellite imaging showing active fires nearby after last night. Not great, but could have been a lot worse. Out of immediate danger anyway. Nothing still burning near Moruya (Bazza's bailiwick, south of Batemans Bay), very good news that.

[Zoe Brain]

Getting dangerously close to the P word here...

https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...rViePnVUpsnUyw

An alternate to thousand dollar air purifiers - much, much noisier but even more efficient - is a hundred dollar industrial vacuum cleaner with HEPA filter. No need to connect the hoses, just run it for 5 minutes to clear a room. I've let as many vulnerable people know as I can.

Anyway, that article is an accurate summary of what the last few weeks have been like here in Canberra. Also why I blew the equivalent of a year's budget for gaming on P2 smoke masks to give away to those who really needed them. I wasn't the only one who had that idea, by the way, turns out quite a few people, student unions etc were doing the same. Even, belatedly, the Government, with 100,000 masks distributed free to pregnant women, those with pulmonary conditions, and the elderly here in Canberra. 5 million distributed throughout the country.

Now the local weather has turned cool, 40% chance of significant rain later in the week, crisis over for now. AQI locally 289, still well over the 200 hazardous level, but nowhere near the immediately poisonous level of 5000 average spiking to 7700 we had on new year's day.

[Flying Officer Kyte]

Glad to hear you have had a bit of respite Zoe. I hope it will last.
The last time I preyed for rain in Australia, we were on the wrong end of a drubbing in the Ashes Test. This time it is far more serious praying for no more ashes in Aus during our lifetimes.
Rob.

[flash]

Even though the weather has taken a turn for the better There's still a heck of a lot of fire going on judging by that map.

[Aardvark1430]

Having just read through this thread there is nothing more to say ... Leaves me total and utterly speechless and without even the tiny'st bit of understanding how and why we humans have come to make things like this happen.
I'm afraid I was right when I used to say: "If there's a God and if he created this world ... then his worst mistake must have been creating the human race".
Sorry if I hurt anybodies feelings ...

To my fellow humans in Australia (and the world): best of luck and let's hope there is still some time left for us all to change the situation ...

All the best,
Guus with tears in my eyes...

[Naharaht]

I am glad to hear that there has been some improvement in the situation. May it long continue.

[Zoe Brain]

Even though the weather has taken a turn for the better There's still a heck of a lot of fire going on judging by that map.

Hotspots as of Monday morning. At least some of the hotspots are due to frantic backburning, since it's now safe-ish to do it. Meanwhole the army engineers are doing a stirling job taking down Killer Trees - those which could come down at any moment. It's these that have roads closed, several fieries have been killed by them now. I had no idea that the Australian Army Reserve had so many professional arborists, who are doing the assessments. They're clearing 30km of highway (ie anything larger than a dirt road) per day in Victoria, re establishing contact with townships on the coast only accessible by sea at the moment.



https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-...toria/11860638

[Zoe Brain]

We only got a few mm of rain here in Canberra. But nearby, where they needed it, they got a cm or more.
Now 1/2 an inch or an inch may not sound like much, but it's more than we've had for months. It was enough so that the fires nearby are under control.



Compare this infra red satellite picture of active fires now, compared with last week.It gives a more accurate picture than the Rural Fire Service incident map, where the icons make no distinction between a snarling dog of a fire, and a rampagingT Rex of one.



That's the good news. All immediate threats averted, air quality now close to normal levels.

Bad news...the worst of the bushfire season is in late February. While we may not have such extreme conditions again, odds are equally likely we'll have worse than anything so far. We're ramping up just in case, while hoping for the best.

[Flying Officer Kyte]

Much more hopeful then Zoe.
I pray that the February threat may be averted as the professionals get a chance to preempt the next outbreak, and hopefully a bit more rain to dampen things down even more.
Rob.

[Stumptonian]

That's great news, Zoe.
Hoping that February arrives and leaves with a whimper for you 'downunders'.

[zippyfusenet]

Thanks for the continued updates. Glad you got some relief.

[Zoe Brain]

You have to laugh Department.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-...ndows/11882472

Hail as big as golf balls and ferocious winds of up to 116 kilometres per hour have torn through Canberra in a storm that had residents running for cover.

The storm, which swept across the ACT and New South Wales — including the firegrounds — smashed windows, dented cars and tore branches off trees, causing localised flooding.

Not my car, fortunarely.

[gully_raker]

G'day All! The good news continues. We have had decent rain over the last few days: 14mm Wed, 4mm Thurs, 15mm Friday, 3 mm Sat & now Monday a storm came through this afternoon & is dropping some good rain. (Have not checked the gauge yet).

Interestingly my daughter just sent me a Facebook message with a link to an article from the Bega District News that relates the story of a huge fire that swept through the whole South Coast region in January 1884.
If you are interested check it out at <www.begsdistrictnews.com.au> It is headed History Repeats Itself.

https://l.facebook.com/l.php?u=https...h_Z6JghdS83Okg

[flash]

You have to laugh Department...

They showed some of that on our News Zoe - looked like a humdinger of a hail storm ! Hopefully the side effect will be to dampen down the risk areas.

[gully_raker]

You have to laugh Department.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-...ndows/11882472





Not my car, fortunarely.

Only in Australia!!!!

[Flying Officer Kyte]

Just nothing is stable weather wise anymore. Sod's law at work again.
Glad to hear things are cooling down for the moment at any rate.
Just pray that it stays that way for you all.
Rob.

[zenlizard]

This is precisely why we Discordians pray very seldom, and even then, only very carefully. Eris is always listening.