I just heard that Tom Hanks and his wife have got it and are in isolation at the Gold coast Hospital in QLD, Australia. Probably my favourite actor too! Really brings it home when the big names get it. Pray that all who have it recover. :dazed:
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I just heard that Tom Hanks and his wife have got it and are in isolation at the Gold coast Hospital in QLD, Australia. Probably my favourite actor too! Really brings it home when the big names get it. Pray that all who have it recover. :dazed:
Ouuuch! I have just watched the "Greyhound" by TH trailer and the movie looks very interesting!
Tom Hanks is one of my favorite actors. I really think they have over reacted to this virus world wide.
Don’t get me wrong it is serious but mainly to people over 65 and in poor health. They are the ones who
Need the precautions and the government should do everything possible to protect them. I do feel it has heightened the awareness for good hygiene and the need for countries
To be more self sufficient with medical supplies!
I work in a hospital (I'm there right now!) and the over-reaction has been colossal!
Multiple measures put in place, requiring huge stocks of supplies which we don't possess!!!!
Barely-veiled panic among several staff groups, and an unwillingness among nurses to attend to the needs of suspected-virus patients - I'm disgusted.
Don't worry Tim, after yesterday's budget you won't know what to do with all the supplies that will come flooding in to hospitals - oooo look, a porcine aviator! ;)
I was hoping that a few of those supplies would find their way to Doncaster, but I guess that if the situation persists we will all have to do Doncaster as Solo games in isolation or skype them from home.:eek:
Rob.
Take care, comrades...
That fits the demographic of a reasonable proportion of the active forum ! :eek:
If the losses are the projected 2% of those infected, at worse case, that's over 5 million US citizens, nearly 12 million EU citizens inc 1 million Brits Dead. I think that's a reason to overreact.
Hopefully it will be all done and dusted by then Rob - Salute might be at risk though. :(
You can take as much care as you like but it could get into your family group from several removes - says the man whose daughter is stopped from going into the office & told to work from home because the girl at the next desk has a sister that just came home from Spain and 'isn't feeling well' and being tested 'just in case'.
If she's positive, sister gets tested; if she's positive, my daughter gets tested; if she's positive.... Guess who's next ?! :erk: Cross that bridge when we get to it. Get in early I say, while stocks last !! :thumbsup:
You should carry on building your "Fortress of Solitude" then, Dave! ;)
Think we are in a huge “wait and see” scenario. There doesn’t seem to be any real way to prevent it, thankfully the overwhelming number of cases are minor and not life threatening. The press are not helping with their blanket doom and gloom journalism either.
Hopefully it will be short lived and we can get our lives back sooner rather than later. Am just waiting for the school closures then the chaos really starts.
Take care of yourselves as best you can folks, and stay in touch
They'd better not cancel Salute. First chance to really meet you all ( reintroduced to game at Alexandra Palace 2019) Fingers crossed.
I don't exactly agree with some of the sentiments expressed here.
For reference I'm an operational research scientist that works for the Canadian Centre for Security Science which does work not only for security issues (e.g., terrorism) but also public safety issues (e.g., natural disasters, pandemics, etc.).
I can't speak for over-reaction of individual groups, but I can say that buying a year's worth of toilet paper? Yeah, over-reaction. The news media? They love negative stories. "If it bleeds, it leads." Not really a surprise, but one can still sift through the information to get the facts from the health experts. Are those people over-reacting? The governments? No, they are not. I know Dr. Theresa Tam, the head of Canada's Public Health Agency. She isn't someone who panics.
There are certain facts that need to be taken into account. This is a new disease and it's taken time to discover how it behaves. Right now, according to our Public Heath Agency data, once the outbreak is in the community is grows exponentially at between 20-40% daily. You can really see the countries where this has happened but looking at those figures. One infected person is infecting two others. At that rate eventually the health system will be overwhelmed. That's the way exponential growth works. Humans are more comfortable with linear growth so they can't get their heads around exponential growth. I know this example of a sports stadium filling with water, but here's a link to it:
https://www.kalmarglobal.com/news--i...ential-growth/
I checked the calculations for Wembley Stadium and the answer is it fills in 47 minutes with a droplet of water (0.05 ml) doubling every minute. To prevent the health system being overwhelmed means acting early when many people are thinking, "what's the fuss, there's only a bit of water on the field".
Just yesterday I've been in touch with US analysts including some who do epidemic modelling. I did some quick calculations. About 10% of diagnosed cases have severe complications requiring hospitalization. The US has 60 thousand full-feature, mechanical ventilators, so one can roughly estimate that the US health system will be overwhelmed if active cases exceed ten times that number or about a half million cases. As mentioned the disease, unchecked is growing exponentially. Depending on what actions are taken that could be between 10% and 40% daily which means the US system will be overwhelmed anywhere between the end of March and sometime in May. When that happens people can't be treated and the lethality rate goes up. Keeping the peak below the capacity of the system is the current goal of our Public Health Agency. They believe it can be done. It's not inevitable. However they expect that within the next two weeks more drastic measures, 'social distancing', will be needed than merely advice on good hygiene.
If you not in a high risk category does it matter? No, if you don't care about family, friends, relatives, etc. who are in high risk categories. Yes, if you do.
It isn't the end of the world. More importantly, it's the first pandemic that public health officials believe we can stop. I believe that too. This is much worse than a typical flu season. Unchecked it's possible to see millions of deaths which would rank this pandemic up there with the Spanish flu, but I believe we're better prepared than they were in 1918-19.
Just as an aside, yesterday an oncologist in one of Ontario's hospital had just returned from a vacation to Hawaii. She tested positive but only after treating 14 cancer patients. The doctor did nothing wrong. She followed all the procedures in place, but it's not a good outcome. The hospital has recommended critical staff cancel vacation trips. Seems prudent to me.
Tim, I hope that your hospital never needs those supplies whether or not they get them.
Very informative and thought provoking. Thank you
Yeah, not sure the timing will be right but fingers crossed ! Been clearing the ground this week. ;)
Timing's not great, it's reckoned we're a couple of weeks behind Italy & they're in lock down in some areas of the country.
We''ll see what happens.
And go downstairs - all over TV - we are in the next phase - Govt reckon 4 weeks behind Italy, worst case 80% pop infected with 1% losses... Probably won't be that bad but even half that will be a lot of body bags. :(
No ban on big events yet though.
Need some help? Hopefully I'll save you time and not add to it, but, hey, no guarantees. :)
If you need a place I sort of do live in a fortress of solitude. I telework and live in a house on a hill in a woods. The only weak link is my wife is a grade 3 teacher.
This is an excellent read if you're interested.
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/ar...-of-the-debate
Tim's referring to the war room I've recently ordered for my garden.
A wealth of knowledge in this and I thank you for it.
Well done Paul.
Here is a porcine aviator, Steve.
Attachment 283513
I heard that people are fighting over toilet paper. I was in the commissary yesterday and that isle was bear. Maybe had 20 packs on the shelves. I can see the Clorox wipes but TP.
flu symptoms are likely with C-19.
As a member of the retail industry, grocery store specialty, I can attest to panic buying today, with a 10 fold increase in curb-side shopping (we shop for you from a list generated on our website or app, and you pick it up "at the curb")
It was almost literally like Christmas Eve, without the music and good cheer. :(
Karl
Well here it isAttachment 283521
My Boss told me today that the toilet paper aisles in Chiswick, West London (posh!) were bare in "Marks and Spencer", but she went next door to "Poundland" (all items £1 or less) and the shelves were full!
Proof at last, that posh Brits in West London are too posh to shop at "Poundland"! :lol:
Attachment 283522New business opportunity
A couple of comments on the situation.
Sadly the first F1 race in 2020 was to be in Melbourne this weekend but at the 11th Hour just before Practice 1 was due to commence the Authorities announced its Cancellation.
Seems one of the McLaren crew had tested positive & there were other teams crew being tested as well.
Re the toilet paper frenzy.
This may be the story behind the world wide activity or not but it does make sense.
One of my friends whose brother is a member of out Antique Machinery Assn. travels worldwide due to his business & a lot is done in Hong Kong.
When he was there some weeks ago he found that there were no supplies of Toilet Paper or tissues reaching Hong Kong from China which is their supplier due to Factory shutdowns due to the virus. Seems the sewerage systems for the 40 story apartment blocks cannot handle anything heavier than soft paper or it will block up & then chaos.
So it seems the local Chinese folk contacted their overseas relatives to buy & post bulk supplies of Toilet Paper.
This was backed up by posts in social media here in Australia of Chinese people queuing outside Aldi, Coles & Woolworths & reappearing with trolley loads of T.P.
This seemed to trigger panic buying by otherwise "normal" people & became a world wide event.:erk:
One of the best resources I've seen on this is Johns Hopkins University:
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/
Most of the US fatalities have been a single nursing home about an hour away from me.
not saying this outbreak isnt serious, but people are definitely overreacting. take sensible precautions and whatever will be, will be.
here in the land of buckeyes our "estimed" governor dewine just banned any gathering of 100 people or more, something wholly unconstitutional.
Exactly Phillip
Quite welcome, all. Also, I'm going to copypasta a rather long post from a shooting buddy who's an epidemiologist:
-----------------------------------------
Hi All,
I’d like to chime in to assist in clarifying information and providing some perspective given my expertise and background.
This quite long, but I've tried to group topically and in outline format. Please note that first and foremost that the views and opinions expressed in this thread are mine and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of any company, organization, affiliate or agency inclusive of the U.S. Government.
I am:
A doctoral-level trained epidemiologist (PhD) with 25+ years of experience in the government (including the CDC) and private sector
Currently employed as national research team lead in Pharma
Pretty well connected with infectious disease epidemiologists and healthcare personnel- some at the CDC, Public Health Service and some who are working directly on the COVID-19 pandemic.
I am not:
A clinician. The information presented here is not an attempt to practice medicine or provide specific medical advice, nor does use of this presentation or informational content within establish a doctor-patient relationship.
The Ultimate Expert on COVID-19
An Infectious Disease expert. I’ve had the educations and training early on, but my area of expertise in in chronic disease, specifically cancer
A politician
An authority in Disasters, Epidemics or Pandemics
A policy maker for any company (including my current employer), group or government
A little background about the coronavirus:
Coronaviruses are a family of viruses named for the crown-like spikes found on their surface. SARS-COV-2 is a novel beta-coronavirus
Genetic material in single strands of RNA, rather than DNA
Infect a variety of human and animal hosts, causing mostly upper-respiratory symptoms like those of the common cold – Vector: Airborne droplet transmission
Responsible for up to 30% of common colds
Prevailing thought is virus was zoonotic in this case (? Civet Cats, Bats as intermediary)
Seven coronaviruses are known to cause human disease, four of which are mild: viruses 229E, OC43, NL63 and HKU1
Until recently, two coronaviruses have been known to cause severe disease in humans:
Middle East Respiratory Syndrome, or MERS, identified in 2012
Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome, or SARS, which was identified in humans in 2002
The SARS-CoV-2 that causes the currently circulating COVID-19 disease is the third example
Why “COVID-19”:
Viruses, and the diseases they cause, often have different names
Example, HIV is the virus that causes AIDS (disease)
Viruses are named based on their genetic structure
Named by the International Committee on Taxonomy of Viruses (ICTV).
Coronaviruses are a family of viruses named for the crown-like spikes found on their surface
“2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV)” was used until formal naming
11 February 2020: ICTV announced “severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)” as the name of the new virus & WHO announced “COVID-19” as the name of this new disease
Chosen because genetically related to coronavirus responsible for SARS outbreak of 2003
COVID-2019: Co = Corona, Vi = Virus, D = Disease & 2019 = year of discovery
WHO & ICTV were in communication about the naming of both the virus & disease
Disease Presentation
Cohort case report: first 41 patients infected with COVID-19 from Wuhan published
Lancet by Huang and colleagues – February 15, 2020
Signs & symptoms since first published observations appear consistent in other reviews to date
Key Clinical Findings:
Fever – 98%, Cough- 76%, Myalgia/Fatigue – 44%
Mostly lower respiratory symptoms with few exceptions (URI / GI)
100% of admitted patients had pneumonia
Of more severely affected, 55% developed dyspnea (mean 8 days)
Lymphopenia – 63%, AST elevation – 37%
The more ill tended to have more / worse degrees of lymphopenia, AST elevation, D-dimer elevation, increased cardiac biomarkers, multiple cytokine increases with clinical evidence of cytokine storm
Chest CT abnormalities in 100% of patients – bilateral, multilobular, subsegmental consolidation in most sick patients.
Less ill patients (non-ICU) – bilateral ground glass appearance and focal subsegmental consolidation
Incubation period approximately 2 - 14 days
Symptoms of COVID-19 usually appear about 5 days (avg)
Median time from symptom onset to:
Hospital admission - 7 days
Dyspnea - 8 days
ICU admission – 10.5 days
Mechanical Ventilation – 10.5 days
WHO: The median time from onset to clinical recovery:
Mild cases is approximately 2 weeks
Critical cases 3 to 6 weeks
Adult Respiratory Disease Syndrome (ARDS) – 29%
Acute Cardiac Injury – 12%
Secondary Infection -10%
Mechanical Ventilation required – 10%
ICU admission – 32%
Testing and Reporting:
Specimens collected from the nose, throat or lungs
PCR testing, nucleic acid tests and ELISA antibody test kits
Study published in February 2020 reports chest CT scans perform better than PCR
Turn around time: Minutes - 48 hours
As testing becomes more available, case load will rapidly increase
Likely primary reason for sharp increase in US cases and case “spikes” seen abroad (such as in China Feb 12)
So far 1+ million test kits manufactured
VP Pence reporting nearly 4 million by end of this week
Clinical testing remains practically challenging
Good, up-to-date source of global data:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus This site is providing real-time updates faster than the CDC
Outlook and predictions
This where a lot of caveats must be reiterated. There is simply a dearth of data to really make accurate assessments as well as conditions that change daily in terms of data availability, surveillance, human behavior, public health response, treatment, etc.
A little background on epidemic curves/wave.
They may encompass multiple generation periods
They begin with a single or limited number of cases and increase with a gradually increasing upslope
Often, a periodicity equivalent to the generation period for the agent might be obvious during the initial stages of the outbreak.
After the outbreak peaks, the exhaustion of susceptible hosts usually results in a rapid downslope.
See the worldometer hyperlink above and select China as an example. Look at the second graph, “Daily New Cases in China”. We can observe a decline in the number of cases and deaths. They may very well be over the peak in the epidemic curve. Now select the US or Italy, notice that we’re still experiencing an increase in cases- largely due to the number of patients tested as well as the propagation of disease. Same for the number of deaths.
Monitor this closely to see what unfolds in these countries. Hopefully we will see a decline in the number of cases in te US soon, but probably not likely immediately due, again to the lag our surveillance, testing, and reporting. That and the propagation of the disease, of course.
Should we be concerned?
Currently the media, government and industry are clearly in panic mode. I feel that much of this is irresponsible, but also try a look at this from different lenses. We need to be cautious and take proper action to inhibit disease propagation. Sometimes a sledgehammer works better to get the message across. Unfortunately, this had become far too politicized for stakeholder gain. The Dems wants to condemn the administration’s response, of course. I’ve been told that even some in the CDC are trying to capitalize on this to lobby for more funds. As a side, the CDC is well funded, but they, just like nearly everything in the government, do not spend their money wisely. Not even close.
Am I at risk?
If you’re in the US, the current infection rate is 1,382 out of a 2020 estimated 331,000,000 US pop. That’s a proportion of 0.00042%. The likelihood of dying from CODIV-19 in the US is currently at 38/331,000,000 or 0.00001% which is the same risk as getting struck by lightning twice in a lifetime (1/9,000,000). Now this could very well change, but those are the numbers as of this morning.
To add another data point, approximately 532,000 have died in the US in 2020 (71 days) due to all causes vs. 38 with COVID-19.
How lethal is this disease? Let’s look at the case fatality rate or CFR (number of deaths/number infected):
The current, global CFR is 3.66% and 2.84% in the US.
Estimates vary widely due primarily to the accuracy of the denominator in the above. We suspect that the most severe/highest risk patients are being tested which will elevate the CFR as well as the demographics and underlying risk characteristics among geographic regions. As we test more mild cases, the denominator grows and the rate or proportion decreases. There is evidence of asymptomatic disease which will affect our ability to properly test and diagnose those who are truly infected. Age is a significant risk factor (due largely to comorbid disease) as is smoking (current smoker). For example, the CFR among those 0-19 years of age is 0.1% while that in 60+ yr age group is 6%. Over age 80 is 14%. My contacts at the CDC are estimating the actual CFR to be between 0.8% and 2% overall.
South Korea’s CFR is 0.8%
Italy is faring far worse at a CFR of 6.6%. This is an unfortunate situation there and speaks to their healthcare/public health response (Which, oddly was ranked 2nd best in the work in 2000). They are rationing health care and not treating the elderly appropriately who are at highest risk.
CFRs compared to other, selected infectious diseases:
SARS: 9.6%
MERS: 34.4%
Ebola: 40-90%
Measles: 15%
Smallpox: 30%
Influenza: 2018-2019 season in the US was estimated to have 35,000,000 infections and 34,000 deaths. Take the denominator with a grain of salt as most of these were not validated diagnoses. The CFR was 0.1% overall and 0.8% for those 65 years of age or older.
COVID-19 is less deadly but more transmissible than SARS, MERS – More transmissible than Influenza and up to ~20x more virulent
Other risk factors:
Aside from age and smoking, observed early-stage CFR risk factors are as follows:
Cardiovascular disease: 10.5%
Diabetes: 7.3%
Hypertension: 6%
Cancer: 5.6%
No comorbid disease: 0.9%
Possibilities are endless but we need to keep things in perspective and stay the course!
Likelihood of infection is low relative to total population
80+% of people will have an asymptomatic to mild disease course
Only 5% of patients will have critical disease
Most people will recover and do well
Deaths will happen but at a rate likely <2% (some experts predicting final rate at 1% or less) and will happen to a greater extent within older patients and those with significant comorbid conditions
What should I do:
Again, I’m not providing medical advice (Docs on this thread, feel free to chime-in) :
Wash your hands often with soap and water for at least 20-30 seconds
“Happy Birthday song” rule
Especially after blowing your nose, coughing, or sneezing; going to the bathroom; and before eating or preparing food
Alcohol-based Hand Sanitizer (>60%) – somewhat less effective than conventional soap/water
1 minute alcohol sanitizer wash
Avoid touching your eyes, nose, & mouth
Stay home if/when you are sick (regardless of cause) & call your HCP for advice
Cover your cough or sneeze with a tissue, then throw the tissue in the trash
Maintain 6 ft distance if possible from other sick individuals (CDC estimates the transmission rate of 0.5% within 6’ of an infected COVID-19 patient)
Social Distancing
Clean & disinfect surfaces often with viricidal cleaners
The ‘Elbow Bump’ is the new handshake!
What to do if you or someone feels ill or gets sick?
Monitor for & Evaluate Symptoms (Fever, cough, shortness of breath)
Temperature checks BID –TID & record values
Seek medical advice if you develop symptoms especially if you have been in close contact with a person known to have COVID-19 or live in or have recently traveled from an area with ongoing spread of COVID-19
Call ahead before you go to a doctor’s office or emergency room
Tell them about your recent travel and your symptoms
Take your temperature and record values
Follow advice of HCP or local health authority
Wear mask if instructed to present for care when leaving home
Self-isolate yourself at home to prevent transmission to others
A word on self-isolation or quarantine:
Isolation lasts for as long as the virus is contagious – 14 days based on other CoVs
Stay away from other people in your home as much as possible (i.e. - staying in separate room & using a separate bathroom)
6+ foot distance from others as much as able
Limit contact with your pets
Small chance humans can pass the disease to dogs or other pets
Only one such case of such a transmission has been reported (in a Pomeranian dog in Hong Kong living with a woman diagnosed with COVID-19)
No visitors unless the person absolutely needs to be in your home
Wear a face mask if you must be around other people
Per CDC, someone who has completed quarantine or has been released from isolation does not pose a risk of infection to other people
Other considerations:
Very stressful for people & our communities
Fear and anxiety & cause strong emotions
Everyone reacts differently to stressful situations
Often more distressed if people see or hear repeated images / reports in the media
Those who may respond more strongly include:
People who have preexisting mental health conditions & problems with substance use
Children
People helping with response to COVID-19 (like HCPs, health related workers, 1st responders)
Avoid excessive exposure to media coverage
Take care of your body
Oh, one other point given I and my colleagues have been asked these question so many times…
Is this an engineered virus directed at the US or other populations? Very, very unlikely given the lethality, incubation period and characteristics, ease of detectability, diagnosis and treatment. The ideal, engineered virus would be far more lethal, more transmissible, and very difficult to detect. Is this a "dry-run" to test propagation? Also very unlikely given there is a plethora of propagation data available from a myriad of infectious diseases as well as simulation models that predict quite well.
--"Warg" at M4C, https://www.m4carbine.net/showthread...32#post2822832
In a nutshell, take prudent steps but nothing to light your hair on fire over. I'm a BIT worried about my girlfriend's dad at 90 and missing half a lung from cancer, but almost as soon as chemo wrapped he was right back to "ready and able to kick my arse At Will."
Wow, awesome Read. Well written and a wealth of Knowledge. Thanks for posting this.
Here's a good site for those interested.
https://informationisbeautiful.net/v...phic-datapack/
The website tries to give accurate data & bust media misinformation.
That was extremely helpful, I especially liked the bit about avoiding excessive media coverage.
Look after yourself folks and stay in touch digitally/electronically am sure we will all support each other as best we can.
:eek: Apart from the Australian F1 Grand Prix being cancelled on Friday morning just minutes before first practice was scheduled to commence our Prime Minister has ordered no gatherings of more than 500 people from Monday next in an effort to try to control the spread.:hmm:
Humour is always good especially in bad times....I found this rant by Jonathan Pie funny.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=aox7CeOdmOY
The other thing I noticed the other day is that the canned soup was gone. I guess if you eat all that soup you need the TP.