Gun Jams and Two Damage Cards

[hatfieldsinal]

I was playing a solo game tonight and thought about the fact that I dread the increased chance of drawing a gun jam when I am shooting at half stick distance where I draw two cards. I have always played that if you "shoot" two damage cards, if either card has a gun jam, guns are jammed.

I began thinking that the extra card at the short distance is for increased chances of a hit, not due to a longer burst or extra guns shooting. So, I'm thinking that of just considering gun jams on only one card, say the first one I draw. Has anyone ever considered this?

John

[MoonSylver]

Never really occurred to me I suppose, but it sounds perfectly reasonable. :)

[Baron Rolf]

That's the way we interpret the rules regarding jammed gun results John.

[Flying Officer Kyte]

I just score the points for both cards and assume that the jam comes at the end of the sequence of firing.
Rob.

[steel_ratt]

Yes, that has occurred to me as well. I object to doubling the chance of a jam just because you are close to your target.
We play with a house rule that only the first card drawn counts for jams. (Both cards are resolved for damage, but only one counts for jam special damage.)

[diceslinger]

Not to be a naysayer, but statistically you don't double your chance to draw a jam. You have about an 11.43% chance to draw a jam I believe (for A damage), and you simply get another 11.76% chance on the second card. There is a .33% increase since there is one less card in the deck. And when you consider there are only 2 jams with 0 damage in the A deck, you almost always get something for your pain, even if you jam. I believe the odds of getting one jam in two draws where the first card is not the jam are 10.416%, slightly less than your 11.43% chance on one draw.
To put it in prespective you also get a second 2% chance to draw an explosion card, 2% for engine damage, 2% for pilot dead, 2% for fire and an 11% rudder jam. Would it be more fair to ignore all special damage on the second card?
I guess I think about this question, "Would you not draw the second card to avoid the jam?" Not I. I'm playing a game of chance and the dice gods can't smile upon me if I don't roll the dice.
With that being said, your rule would only affect the results 10.416% of the time and on both sides, so I would still be fine playing it. I don't see that it gives an unfair advantage, perhaps it favors faster planes that can get close more often, but I wouldn't think it would matter much.

[crashx]

Ouch!!! My brain hurts!!!

[AlgyLacey]

Not to be a naysayer, but statistically you don't double your chance to draw a jam. You have about an 11.43% chance to draw a jam I believe (for A damage), and you simply get another 11.76% chance on the second card. There is a .33% increase since there is one less card in the deck. And when you consider there are only 2 jams with 0 damage in the A deck, you almost always get something for your pain, even if you jam. I believe the odds of getting one jam in two draws where the first card is not the jam are 10.416%, slightly less than your 11.43% chance on one draw.
To put it in perspective you also get a second 2% chance to draw an explosion card, 2% for engine damage, 2% for pilot dead, 2% for fire and an 11% rudder jam. Would it be more fair to ignore all special damage on the second card?
I guess I think about this question, "Would you not draw the second card to avoid the jam?" Not I. I'm playing a game of chance and the dice gods can't smile upon me if I don't roll the dice.
With that being said, your rule would only affect the results 10.416% of the time and on both sides, so I would still be fine playing it. I don't see that it gives an unfair advantage, perhaps it favors faster planes that can get close more often, but I wouldn't think it would matter much.

Buy that man a drink before he hurts himself!

[flash]

....And dress him in a gold Kagoul - he's earnt it ! ;)

[Flying Officer Kyte]

And give him a:medal: and a strong:pint: .
Kyte.:salute:

[diceslinger]

Yeah, but you know what they say, "There's lies, damn lies, and statistics!"

[wargamer]

Yeah, but you know what they say, "There's lies, damn lies, and statistics!"

Yes, my favorite Mark Twain line!

[steel_ratt]

So it's not exactly double the chance. It's effectively double; I'm not going to haggle over 1.01%.

[Flying Officer Kyte]

"Would you not draw the second card to avoid the jam?" Not I. I'm playing a game of chance and the dice gods can't smile upon me if I don't roll the dice.


For me, cutting out all the fancy maths, the quote above is the key statement from Shawn.

Life is far too short in the world of Wings of Glory to fret about the luck of a card. Lady Luck is a fickle mistress at the best of times, as many of the great Aces found out to their cost, and for me the game reflects this.
Take out the "Boom card" ? Not me. Se la guerre.
Rob.

[diceslinger]

So it's not exactly double the chance. It's effectively double; I'm not going to haggle over 1.01%.

Just to clarify, you have about an 11% (4 in 35) chance to draw the jam card with a fresh deck on one draw. You have about a 10% chance of drawing two cards with the first being not a jam and the second being a jam. So in reality you have less perceived chance drawing a jam when you draw two cards at close range. I say perceived because the difference is that you also have a 1% chance of drawing two jam cards in a row, that is where the missing 1% went. But one jam is all it takes, so I threw that out. In fact I would prefer them both to be jams if one is going to be, right? It's those zeros I don't like....

I'm not trying to be argumentative, like I said, I would have no problem playing this rule. For simplicity sake I would not because it is one more rule to remember that doesn't change the game much, but that being said I know how one niggling detail can drive one nuts with a game. If it makes the game more enjoyable to ignore the jam then I'm all for it. Like that stupid Rapid Fire rule in 40K.....grrrr!

[steel_ratt]

I do understand the stats - no problems there. I also recognize that I am more inclined to tinker with game mechanics than most people. To each their own!

Cheers,
Jon

[flash]

Give them more beer ! :lol:

[Flying Officer Kyte]

Give them more beer ! :lol:

More beer coming up Squadron Leader.:pint::pint::pint::pint:
Kyte.

[Пилот]

I was playing a solo game tonight and thought about the fact that I dread the increased chance of drawing a gun jam when I am shooting at half stick distance where I draw two cards. I have always played that if you "shoot" two damage cards, if either card has a gun jam, guns are jammed.

I began thinking that the extra card at the short distance is for increased chances of a hit, not due to a longer burst or extra guns shooting. So, I'm thinking that of just considering gun jams on only one card, say the first one I draw. Has anyone ever considered this?

John

Sounds fine and seems OK.